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Post by jimc on Apr 26, 2018 4:46:18 GMT
Pens in 7 Bruins in 7 Sharks in 6 Preds in 7
4 potentially really good series
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 26, 2018 5:20:12 GMT
I've got Preds-Jets as being the most entertaining. Hope it lives up to expectations, but yeah, all 4 should be a great time.
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Post by HawkDad on Apr 26, 2018 5:47:05 GMT
Pens in 7 Tampa in 7 Preds in 6 Vegas in 6
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Post by lari on Apr 26, 2018 6:33:26 GMT
I went 6-2 in the first round. My random prediction went 2-6.
Next round I have:
Pens over Caps Bolts over Bruins Preds over Jets Knights over Sharks
die-roll Caps over Pens Bruins over Bolts Preds over Jets Sharks over Knights
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Post by khawk20 on Apr 26, 2018 10:11:31 GMT
Caps over Penguins in 6 Boston over Tampa in 6 Nashville over Winnipeg in 5 Sharks over Vegas in 6
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 26, 2018 13:51:05 GMT
And just for kicks, below is a list of various team categories and the number of times the team that had the better regular season stat in that category ended up winning the series:
Standings points: 7 CorsiFor%: 7 FenwickFor%: 7 PP%: 6 PK%: 5 Goal Differential: 8 Shot%: 5 Save%: 3
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Post by jimc on Apr 26, 2018 13:57:38 GMT
i always like goal differential.
Interesting the PP%
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 26, 2018 14:04:53 GMT
Goal differential has always been pretty solid. PP% definitely performed above average in round 1.
I'd like to see how some of the playoff stats measure up to what teams did in the regular season, but that's a little more tedious to look up. I can't seem to find a good site that gives you PP% or other such stats for a certain period of time.
The only thing I caught a quick look of is it seems that teams with better Corsi won 6 of 8 playoff series last round
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Post by jimc on Apr 26, 2018 14:46:09 GMT
The CORSI thing doesn't surprise me...as 1st round is where you have the biggest discrepancy between good and bad teams...6 out of 8 isnt al that special, honestly. CORSI is merely a by-product of being a good team...not a cause of it. Good teams tend to dominate play, therefore stats like CORSI get invented to 'prove' it.
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 26, 2018 15:31:53 GMT
I don't know if anybody has ever tried to argue differently from that. People that advocate for something like corsi aren't saying that to be good you need to shoot more, but it's that subtle difference of saying, "Teams that are really good will typically outshoot their opponent"
We see it every year that there are teams who fluke their way across 82 games into an unreasonably high playoff seed. But the one thing those super fluky teams always seem to have in common is that their shot% for the year was ridiculous. Last year, the Minnesota Wild were never a legit team despite having that long running win streak. Blind luck got them to where they ended up. Their shot% was second in the league, but they were mostly getting outshot every game. The Leafs in 2013 were the same exact thing. #1 in shooting% but then dead last in FenwickFor%. But at the time, that Leafs team was described as scrappy, and maybe finally turning the corner into actually being something. ....But no. They sucked. They have always sucked. And we're seeing it with the Wild now too. They were never for real. All season long we knew that team was junk.
You can even apply shooting% to players. "OMG, so-and-so really busted out this year and has scored twice as many goals as he normally does!"
Brian Bickell w/ 384 regular season games was an 11.7% shooter. In the 2013 playoffs he hit 18.4%. When Matt Belesky was making noise as an emerging star, he was shooting 15%, where he's normally 9.9%
Right now William Karlsson, a career 7.7% shooter is registering at 23%. I think it's safe to say.... He might be a fluke. If you give him 11%, his 40+ goal season drops to 20 goals.
I think we're saying the same thing here. People (or at least I) look to fenwick vs shooting% as indicators of where the success might be coming from. Something that is sustainable & repeatable or not?
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Post by brendan on Apr 26, 2018 18:07:16 GMT
7-1 in round 1. Here's what it looks like for round 2: Boston over Tampa Pittsburgh over Washington Winnipeg over Nashville San Jose over Vegas Soccer has 3 dogs advance vs "vegas" Very interesting. Putting on my tin foil betting hat I've always been included that the odds makers (who are very very well paid) have some proprietary super hidden algorithm for these plays...interesting your metrics are against grain. I'm gonna fire 3 of 4 here. I like Winnipeg already, getting a price is nice, I like pens, and I'm gonna fire San Jose getting a price. L.f.g.
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 26, 2018 18:26:42 GMT
I don't know what Vegas is showing, but one hindrance to what I'm doing is there's not really a way to account for "Malkin is hurt" or "Bergeron is hurt"
But even if Bergeron was healthy, I suspect everyone would be picking Tampa anyway. (And I don't see Malkin as the reason Washington advances.)
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 26, 2018 18:28:02 GMT
And I actually feel least confident in the San Jose - Vegas selection.
I think Vegas's speed will murder the Sharks. We'll see who is right though. Me or me.
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Post by jimc on Apr 26, 2018 19:35:07 GMT
Karlsson is one guy I was going to mention specifically in talking about shooting percentage, for sure.
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Post by Pez68 on Apr 27, 2018 6:32:37 GMT
Kind of cheating here since two games have already been played, but I was picking them anyway.
Vegas over San Jose. Pittsburgh over Capitals.(vomit) Tampa over Boston. Nashville over Winnipeg
I would fucking love to be wrong about the Caps. But ...meh.
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