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Post by soccer24 on Jan 23, 2018 19:46:14 GMT
Which is why I said "And it isn't even about 1st rounders." But that article ignores the fact that goalies picked in the 1st round are still more likely to make the NHL than goalies picked in later rounds. I hate you for making me do the work, but at lunch I'm going to run the actual numbers and I am sure that they will back up my claim.
Although, I'd actually be really curious to see that. I've always been under the school of thought that goalies are voodoo, and it's near impossible to figure out who will be good.
The Hawks alone have seen Niemi, Darling, Emery, and now Jeff Glass perform well when it was never expected. Who knew that Dubnyk would be a superstar in Minnesota? Was Pittsburgh really expecting Matt Murray to bring them a pair of Cups as soon as he did?
Just seems to be a position that is much more chaotic and less predictable vs the others.
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Post by gadi on Jan 23, 2018 20:22:35 GMT
OK here are the number from 2000-2009. 272 total goalies drafted, 63 of which played at least 30 NHL games. 29 of those goalies have played at least 300 NHL games. | Total Drafted | Played 30 games | Played 300 games | 1st Round | 22 | 14 | 9 | 2nd Round | 30 | 14 | 5 | 3rd Round | 33 | 8 | 4 | 4th Round | 30 | 6 | 3 | 5th Round | 50 | 5 | 3 | 6th Round | 42 | 7 | 0 | 7th Round | 35 | 5 | 1 | 8th Round | 17 | 2 | 2 | 9th Round | 13 | 2 | 2 |
The last two columns aren't separate, a goalie who played at least 300 games would appear in both. So it's pretty clear that drafting goalies in the higher rounds IS more likely to yield an NHL ready goalie than lower down. Now, we can look at the success rate of goalies vs. other positions, but since there are a lot less rostered goalies than forwards or dmen, obviously that number will be less. But I bet if I ran those numbers as well by round, the highest success rate would be found near the top. So yeah, the drafting goalies in the 6th/7th round like the Hawks have been doing lately is fine, but you are hoping for a home run, that's all. You can't expect to build depth at a position that way.
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Post by gadi on Jan 23, 2018 20:28:12 GMT
Which is why I said "And it isn't even about 1st rounders." But that article ignores the fact that goalies picked in the 1st round are still more likely to make the NHL than goalies picked in later rounds. I hate you for making me do the work, but at lunch I'm going to run the actual numbers and I am sure that they will back up my claim.
Although, I'd actually be really curious to see that. I've always been under the school of thought that goalies are voodoo, and it's near impossible to figure out who will be good.
The Hawks alone have seen Niemi, Darling, Emery, and now Jeff Glass perform well when it was never expected. Who knew that Dubnyk would be a superstar in Minnesota? Was Pittsburgh really expecting Matt Murray to bring them a pair of Cups as soon as he did?
Just seems to be a position that is much more chaotic and less predictable vs the others.
That is a separate point from drafting, you are talking about evaluating players who are no longer with their draft team (or in Niemi's case, UFAs). But that success only is because the Hawks had no internal candidates who could fill the role, so the Hawks had to go outside the organization. I think you can find decent backups on the UFA market but the majority of starters are either acquired through the draft or trade. And the Hawks haven't addressed that position at all. And Murray was a 3rd rounder. Expecting him to win to Cups quickly would have been foolish, but he wasn't a nobody.
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Post by lari on Jan 23, 2018 20:50:13 GMT
So essentially the majority of goalies drafted in the first round can be had via waivers a couple years later. Or signed as free agents after they aren't QO'd.
It's a waste to draft a goalie in the 1st round, unless you have a lot of picks and there's a solid still-developing big goalie who isn't a headcase. Good luck finding one.
The fact a lot of them peak after their ELC or even RFA contracts expire makes it even tougher. A lot of current starters started up as backups in entirely different franchises.
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Post by gadi on Jan 23, 2018 22:19:47 GMT
Your whole post is wrong.
Almost none of the successful first rounders made it to waivers or were trade dumps.
Here is a list of the goalies drafted in the 1st round who became successful NY Islanders Rick DiPietro Pittsburgh Marc-Andre Fleury Atlanta Kari Lehtonen Montreal Carey Price Los Angeles Jonathan Bernier Edmonton Devan Dubnyk Toronto Tuukka Rask Washington Semyon Varlamov Carolina Cam Ward Vancouver Cory Schneider
Only Dubnyk & Bernier bounced around. The other guys either found success with their drafted teams or were major pieces in trades.
And the majority of guys who were backups one place before becoming starters elsewhere wasn't because the first team misidentified their talent, it was because the first team was happy with their starter and was looking to get value for their smartly drafted asset. So you CAN trade for guys who are backups elsewhere to become starters, but they usually aren't cheap.
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Post by Merpes on Jan 24, 2018 2:13:18 GMT
Teams are also more likely to stick with a 1st round goalie a little longer to see if he develops. The 6th/7th round guys usually get forgotten unless they storm out of the gate.
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Post by lari on Jan 24, 2018 3:12:26 GMT
Your whole post is wrong. Almost none of the successful first rounders made it to waivers or were trade dumps. Here is a list of the goalies drafted in the 1st round who became successful NY Islanders Rick DiPietro Pittsburgh Marc-Andre Fleury Atlanta Kari Lehtonen Montreal Carey Price Los Angeles Jonathan Bernier Edmonton Devan Dubnyk Toronto Tuukka Rask Washington Semyon Varlamov Carolina Cam Ward Vancouver Cory Schneider Only Dubnyk & Bernier bounced around. The other guys either found success with their drafted teams or were major pieces in trades. And the majority of guys who were backups one place before becoming starters elsewhere wasn't because the first team misidentified their talent, it was because the first team was happy with their starter and was looking to get value for their smartly drafted asset. So you CAN trade for guys who are backups elsewhere to become starters, but they usually aren't cheap. It said 22 guys were drafted in the first round, and only 9 "made it". So the other 13, the majority, could be had, probably for free.
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Post by gadi on Jan 24, 2018 15:11:47 GMT
OK? The goal is to put yourself in the best position to get a quality goaltender that you can develop. Drafting a goalie in the top 3 rounds is your best bet to do so. Trying to develop a formerly highly thought of prospect who has already been put on waivers doesn't really help you at all, so I'm not sure what your point is.
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Post by lari on Feb 11, 2018 15:52:37 GMT
So far this season:
Crawford .929 Forsberg .910 Glass .905 Berube .857
Darling the last three seasons managed .936, .915 and .924.
Maybe too much to expect from a backup, but the Hawks could do better than Forsberg.
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Post by Giovi on Feb 11, 2018 16:41:56 GMT
at least forsberg has some possible upside. they should be playing him to see what it is. any game with glass starting is a wasted opportunity. hes no better than forsberg, has no upside, and gives you no better chance to win.
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Post by lari on Feb 11, 2018 16:54:06 GMT
I agree.
Glass was a good story, and for a brief while he outplayed Forsberg.
But the more games we see the easier it is to understand why he never made it.
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Post by HawkDad on Feb 11, 2018 19:57:36 GMT
What those guys said. Ride Forsberg, but not like asaad would, for every game here on out. Glass gets the baseball cap seat.
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Post by Merpes on Feb 11, 2018 21:21:38 GMT
Why not?
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Post by HawkDad on Feb 11, 2018 22:04:01 GMT
Because Gary said you are to rough.
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Post by Merpes on Feb 11, 2018 22:06:40 GMT
I'm gentle with the older folk.
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