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Post by soccer24 on Oct 24, 2017 21:15:46 GMT
I think the entire league skipped out last year. The whole thing was a shit show. It featured Columbus and Minnesota at the top of the standings. Nothing made sense.
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Post by gadi on Oct 25, 2017 19:26:30 GMT
Yeah I mean it's a lot of work, and the end of season stuff is interesting, but unless you can identify trends based off of where a team is ranked in week 4 or whatever, power rankings are nothing more but click-bait/bar argument fodder.
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Post by lari on Oct 25, 2017 19:44:48 GMT
I think the entire league skipped out last year. The whole thing was a shit show. It featured Columbus and Minnesota at the top of the standings. Nothing made sense. Do your stats take quality of goaltending in consideration at all, or is it purely based on shots? Because Bobrovsky played amazing last season. Another team might get more and better shots, but the team with better goaltending can still win more games consistently. And it's probably the most important position in hockey. You certainly lose immediately with bad goaltending. No matter what your Corsi and shot totals say.
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Post by soccer24 on Oct 25, 2017 20:19:57 GMT
Well, one of the categories I look at is SV%. And so that reflected in Columbus's score last year. Save% is the third most important factor in the formula.
And I didn't pick it that way randomly. Looking at the past 10 years, the team with the best Save% won about 58% of the series. That's still behind the marks of Corsi and Goal Differential (which would have some element of 'good goalie' presence in it.) Those were 60% and 62% respectively. I suppose you could kind of look at Goal Differential as being a 'bridge' stat between Corsi & Save%. Goal Differential is blind to the ways your team was able to score & prevent goals.
You could also read this as: Yes, the formula I have rates good goaltending in a positive light and as a significant contributor. But the formula doesn't really buy the hype of a team that coasted on a high shooting %. However, goaltending still falls secondary to teams that are excellent at regularly outshooting their opponent.
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Post by soccer24 on Oct 30, 2017 16:28:50 GMT
Chicago dipped several more ranks. Their shooting % has come back down to a normal level, as they were on fire to begin the season, but have had a cold spell to completely negate all of that.
CBJ at the top is weird to me... Washington overtaking ARZ for dead last is also weird.
Also bizarre: Top 5 Corsi teams in this order: EDM, CAR, CBJ, MTL, & SJS. Aside from CBJ, they are all terrible in the actual standings. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Week 4: 1 Columbus 2 Los Angeles 3 San Jose 4 St. Louis 5 Dallas 6 Nashville 7 Vancouver 8 Toronto 9 Carolina 10 Ottawa 11 Tampa Bay 12 NY Islanders 13 Edmonton 14 Boston 15 Vegas 16 Calgary 17 Pittsburgh 18 New Jersey 19 Anaheim 20 Montreal 21 Detroit 22 Philadelphia 23 Florida 24 Chicago 25 Winnipeg 26 Colorado 27 Minnesota 28 Buffalo 29 NY Rangers 30 Arizona 31 Washington
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Post by lari on Oct 30, 2017 16:33:26 GMT
Aw hell no, the Hawks are worse than the Panthers now.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 6, 2017 16:56:49 GMT
Latest look has been attached. Sharks are the new #1.
Despite last night's game, Hawks rise to 13th. They were 24th the week prior. A couple of recent wins, and they don't seem to be getting outshot as regularly (& handedly) as they were earlier in the season.
This upcoming week the Hawks will take on three teams that are all in a large cluster of middle-of-the-road teams (along with the Hawks):
PHI - Should be a win. This seems to be a team that's an easy match-up for the Hawks. Philly's terrible PK should allow the Chicago PP to score another goal or two, making everyone believe the PP is actually improved.
CAR - Carolina is weird. They won't be an easy game. And I think Q will probably play the back-up goalie here thinking NJ is the tougher matchup. But Carolina does the right things, they just can't shoot for shit. If Hawks play Forsberg, I suspect Darling gets a win. Otherwise, Chicago.
NJD - And NJ is like the opposite of Carolina. Not generating much offensively, but they are managing to get all the right bounces. This is the one I feel the Hawks end up dropping. They'll probably look like the superior team, and have an interesting third period, but Hawks lose here.
Rank Team 1 San Jose 2 Columbus 3 Los Angeles 4 St. Louis 5 Vancouver 6 Dallas 7 Tampa Bay 8 Boston 9 Calgary 10 Nashville 11 Carolina 12 NY Islanders 13 Chicago 14 Pittsburgh 15 Edmonton 16 Detroit 17 Montreal 18 Toronto 19 Vegas 20 Ottawa 21 Philadelphia 22 Anaheim 23 New Jersey 24 NY Rangers 25 Winnipeg 26 Minnesota 27 Buffalo 28 Florida 29 Colorado 30 Washington 31 Arizona
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Post by lari on Nov 6, 2017 17:38:42 GMT
So if your predictions go wrong, can we make fun of you and your advanced stats?
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 6, 2017 17:58:22 GMT
Oh, some of these will definitely go wrong.
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Post by jimc on Nov 6, 2017 18:00:12 GMT
SJ number one is lol
But these are better, at least, than in game corsi...lol
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 6, 2017 18:09:48 GMT
Currently riding a 4 game win streak. Still just a month (& change) in. Hot streaks are probably being overplayed to a certain degree. Still a long way to go. And we still haven't seen everyone play everyone yet either, so mismatched strengths of schedule are certainly at play.
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Post by garyu on Nov 6, 2017 18:57:49 GMT
Hawks are back to playing to opponents level again....or is it the other way around?
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Post by jimc on Nov 6, 2017 19:41:48 GMT
Hawks would have more wins if teams played down to their level!!
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Post by garyu on Nov 6, 2017 19:54:59 GMT
Hawks would have more wins if teams played down to their level!! Point taken.
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Post by Hawksfan10 on Nov 7, 2017 17:01:32 GMT
Yeah I mean it's a lot of work, and the end of season stuff is interesting, but unless you can identify trends based off of where a team is ranked in week 4 or whatever, power rankings are nothing more but click-bait/bar argument fodder. This. Having said that, I do applaud Soccer for the effort put into this (it's a LOT of fucking work). I too love to tinker with numbers and formulas to find something that is an accurate indicator of potential wins. The problem is, NO formula will be the best in a given year so even if this was *THE* way to predict wins and losses, the fact that it did not work last year is NOT a knock against it. I still think CORSI on its own is a useless stat and correlation does not equal causation, but I think Soccer has his heart in the right place.
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