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Post by soccer24 on Nov 7, 2017 17:15:50 GMT
I think the most convincing corsi argument for me though is if you run a search on 2009 through 2015 for the top corsi teams, you're going to see that the franchises who did best in that era are at the top. The ones who did the worst are near the bottom. And I think it makes sense. ...If you're the team shooting most of the time, you're probably doing things correctly. There might be a player out there who is trying to boost his corsi. But if he's shooting crappy shots to boost a rating, the coach is going to bench him for it. And I'm not sure how many teams out there are going to regularly outshoot teams just by taking bad shots the whole game. I think a lot of the fears against corsi are often over-stated. It's definitely not an end-all be-all stat (other than playoff wins, no stat is.) But I think it is a noteworthy stat.
But yeah, the thing I'm sharing here is getting to be pretty automated now. I can do it daily now if I wanted. I just go to hockey-reference.com and dump 2 different tables into an Excel sheet, and Excel handles the rest for me from there. Chicago dropped to 14th over night, haha.
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Post by Pez68 on Nov 7, 2017 18:00:30 GMT
I think the most convincing corsi argument for me though is if you run a search on 2009 through 2015 for the top corsi teams, you're going to see that the franchises who did best in that era are at the top. The ones who did the worst are near the bottom. And I think it makes sense. ...If you're the team shooting most of the time, you're probably doing things correctly. There might be a player out there who is trying to boost his corsi. But if he's shooting crappy shots to boost a rating, the coach is going to bench him for it. And I'm not sure how many teams out there are going to regularly outshoot teams just by taking bad shots the whole game. I think a lot of the fears against corsi are often over-stated. It's definitely not an end-all be-all stat (other than playoff wins, no stat is.) But I think it is a noteworthy stat. But yeah, the thing I'm sharing here is getting to be pretty automated now. I can do it daily now if I wanted. I just go to hockey-reference.com and dump 2 different tables into an Excel sheet, and Excel handles the rest for me from there. Chicago dropped to 14th over night, haha. A whole bunch of them last year....
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 7, 2017 19:04:24 GMT
I put together one more chart here.
The vertical axis is your power ranking score (lower is better, so I inverted the axis for you.) The horizontal axis represents each round of the playoffs. A 1 means you got bounced first round. A 4 means you made the Cup Final. A 5 means you won the Cup.
Each blue dot corresponds to one of the 160 playoff teams we have seen the last 10 years. You will see red dots that indicate the average score of a given round.
Make of it what you will. Only downside to this is that the sample size for Cup winners is much smaller than that of first round eliminations. So maybe I have a false average there? But it's quite a bit higher than all the others.
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Post by lari on Nov 7, 2017 19:10:13 GMT
There might be a player out there who is trying to boost his corsi. When is the NHL going to hand out an award for the best Corsi?
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Post by khawk20 on Nov 7, 2017 19:22:55 GMT
There might be a player out there who is trying to boost his corsi. When is the NHL going to hand out an award for the best Corsi? No you're confused. The Award was "Best Clitoris". Alex Burrows won in 2011 and then they retired the award.
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Post by jimc on Nov 7, 2017 19:27:06 GMT
Players trying to boost their CORSI?
Stop.
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Post by jimc on Nov 7, 2017 19:28:07 GMT
Correlation does not equal causation...i like that
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Post by garyu on Nov 7, 2017 19:44:13 GMT
Correlation does not equal causation...i like that Do you need the definition?
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Post by lari on Nov 7, 2017 20:56:00 GMT
If I buy a Lamborghini, I'll become rich.
Because buying Lambos correlates so well with being wealthy.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 7, 2017 21:42:01 GMT
This is a good video on correlation and causation: www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUti6vGctQM&vl=enAnd Jim, I'm not really saying there are players who try to boost their corsi. It's just one of the dumb arguments heard from the anti-corsi crowd. Players and teams don't shoot just for the sake of shooting. Sure, there is something to be said about shot quality and all that. But I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the teams that shoot more are generating more shots across the quality spectrum. I don't think you'll find a team that shoots more than most, but it's only due to a more low quality shots. There are expected goals for/against formulas that take into account type of shot and where it came from. I would expect a team's Expected-Goals-For% to be very closely correlated with Corsi For % I do want to incorporate Goals For into all of this. It's just a bigger pain in the ass to sort out since the only one remaining I know if is at corsi.hockey, and that site (while having great content) can be buggy and frustrating to deal with. Maybe I'll have the patience to put up with it one of these days.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 7, 2017 21:49:36 GMT
Also worth reminding here... The rankings I have been posting weekly are not determined solely on corsi. Goal differential, team save percentage, penalty killing, and your actual position in the standings are all important contributors as well. (Powerplay and shooting percentage are mostly discarded.)
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Post by jimc on Nov 8, 2017 2:39:01 GMT
Shot quality is an extremely important metric, which is why CORSI really lacks relevance...all shots are not created equal...and different teams play different styles...some, like the hawks, pour a volume of low quality shots on goal...teams like LA and Pit generate less shots but of a higher quality...which teams actuslly 'possess' the puck more effectively?
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Post by jimc on Nov 8, 2017 2:40:24 GMT
Why are pp and shooting percentage discarded?
Save percentage and PK are no more important
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 8, 2017 7:43:28 GMT
Because when it came to looking at 150 different playoff series, the team with the better PP or the better SH% won less than half of them.
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Post by lari on Nov 8, 2017 9:52:27 GMT
How do Too Many Men -penalties correlate with winning? Hawks don't have any this season, but were plagued by them during all those years of success.
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