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Post by soccer24 on Apr 9, 2018 20:24:55 GMT
And why not: If we assume the top seed advances out of the first round, then that would mean: 6 of 8 teams with the best Corsi, Fenwick, and Powerrank would have advanced 5 of the best PP teams would have advanced only 4 of best PK teams would advance 7 with the best goal differential 6 with best shot % and 4 with best save %
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Post by lari on Apr 9, 2018 20:29:05 GMT
Ok, here's how it all breaks down from this system: Tampa over New Jersey Boston over Toronto Columbus over Washington Pittsburgh over Philadelphia Nashville over Colorado Winnipeg over Minnesota Vegas over LA -- This is looking like the closest matchup of the first round. Every other round has a sizeable gap between the two teams.San Jose over Anaheim Now, I do this round by round, but here's how the rest of it maps out assuming 100% accuracy: Boston over Tampa Pittsburgh over Columbus Winnipeg over Nashville San Jose over Vegas Boston over Pittsburgh Winnipeg over San Jose Boston over Winnipeg And that's the only series where we disagree. I will be rooting for the Knights actually, but I just felt the Kings' Cup winning mettle will be too much. The Knights have been awesome but they might not have another gear, while guys like Kopitar, Doughty and Quick have been through it all and will step up once again. Unfortunately. However, like my previous years' predictions, I also think about half the series' will go against what's expected. The first round is traditionally not only the best hockey of the playoffs, but it also comes with the biggest upsets.
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 9, 2018 20:38:45 GMT
I'm also curious to see if they are able to find that "playoff gear" as well. The way people play is certainly different when you get to that stage. The games now mean a lot more, and it's only the good teams left; those NY teams won't be on the ice anymore, wasting everyone's time. I think catching LA in round 1 is a good break for Vegas (which they earned of course, due to their regular season success.)
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Post by jimc on Apr 9, 2018 21:36:13 GMT
I think catching vegas is a good break for LA
Playoff MAF, folks.
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Post by jimc on Apr 9, 2018 21:37:08 GMT
Also of note: For a while Boston was on track to finish the best over he past 11 seasons with this method. They slipped down the end, coming in at third, ranking behind the 2008 Red Wings and the 2010 Blackhawks. The next best team in the standings comes in at 45th (Winnipeg, which is when a lot more teams from 2018 start to show up. So a bit of a strange year in this regard, I suppose. The bottom 7 now looks like this: Rank Year Team 325 2018 Rangers 326 2018 Islanders 327 2009 Islanders 328 2017 Coyotes 329 2008 Thrashers 330 2015 Sabres 331 2010 Oilers For the Hawks, this year was the third worst they've been since the 2007-08 season. They were able to score better than the 2017 (just barely) & 2008 versions. I thought regular season didnt matter?
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 9, 2018 21:50:26 GMT
Good joke?
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Post by brendan on Apr 10, 2018 1:23:10 GMT
Put the power rankings up again with the playoff teams please ? I wanna see how it matches up with lines.
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 10, 2018 15:29:43 GMT
Boston | 2.4 | Winnipeg | 7.9 | Pittsburgh | 8.5 | Nashville | 9.7 | San Jose | 9.9 | Columbus | 10.9 | Tampa Bay | 11.2 | Vegas | 16.4 | Los Angeles | 20.0 | Philadelphia | 22.6 | Toronto | 23.0 | Anaheim | 25.7 | New Jersey | 26.4 | Minnesota | 26.6 | Washington | 31.4 | Colorado | 31.8 |
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 10, 2018 22:04:27 GMT
Was just reading an article and came across this on the topic of the Leafs-Bruins series
Narrative stuff aside, I had seen it previously suggested that having a lot of wins in one goal games isn't really the signs of a good team, but instead a team that was helped out with some luck. And I think when it comes to hockey, those bad breaks can be even more impactful than in other sports (and conversely the same can be said about good breaks.) So is winning a bunch of one-games really as much about determination and grit as we like to think, or is there a portion of that which can be contributed to merely being fortunate to be the one team that got that extra goal in the game?
I know a lot of brows were raised with where this system kept ranking the Lightning as not the clear-cut favorite. But maybe this is just one more red flag on that team? They have good things in their favor, but they also have relied on PP%, Shooting Percentage, don't really have a strong fenwick/corsi, and had the most one-goal wins?
For reference, here are the teams who had the highest win % in 1-goal games for each of the last 10 years: 2017 - Calgary 2016 - St. Louis/Washington 2015 - Anaheim 2014 - Colorado 2013 - Pittsburgh 2012 - Tampa Bay 2011 - Anaheim 2010 - Phoenix 2009 - New Jersey 2008 - Edmonton
...I wouldn't say that's good company to be in.
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Post by soccer24 on Apr 10, 2018 22:13:05 GMT
Oh, I looked further to the right and found the column I'm more interested in. Here are the teams with the most one-goal game wins (not percentage, just actual most wins):
2018 - New Jersey & Tampa 2017 - Chicago (lol, so maybe this has some merit after all!) 2016 - Detroit/LA/Washington 2015 - Anaheim 2014 - Colorado 2013 - Chicago (Oh, wait, this team was really damn good, hmmmm...) 2012 - Vancouver/Philly/Tampa 2011 - Anaheim 2010 - Phoenix 2009 - San Jose 2008 - New Jersey
So to lightly talk on that 2013 Chicago team.... I think if you have good underlying numbers, then maybe a stat like this isn't quite as alarming as it would be otherwise. Either way, I think it's fair to say that particular Chicago team wasn't just damn good, but also quite lucky. To go on an extended point-streak like that is going to require a certain amount of luck, no matter how good you are.
But if you're a team that was winning a lot of one goal games, but was generally getting outshot in those games, I think it's fair to say that would be a concerning scenario.
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Post by jimc on Apr 11, 2018 2:53:31 GMT
Leafs had the most leads blown in the 3rd p last season...they were better this year, but still are never out of a game...ahead or behind...in their case, I agreee winning percentage in one goal games betrays a weakness in defense and experience.
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Post by Hawksfan10 on Apr 11, 2018 15:41:05 GMT
They also have the better coach in this series by far.
I'm not sold on any of the "favourites" in the East at all. I predict/(hope??) LAK destroys VGK as well. That's a situation that is long overdue to crash down to earth.
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Post by garyu on Apr 11, 2018 15:46:14 GMT
They also have the better coach in this series by far. I'm not sold on any of the "favourites" in the East at all. I predict/(hope??) LAK destroys VGK as well. That's a situation that is long overdue to crash down to earth. Kings are much better since Kopitar/Brown remembered how & Carter came back.
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Post by khawk20 on Apr 11, 2018 16:32:12 GMT
Brown (even Kopitar) is having the kind of year we have to hope Capt. Jonny can find again at least once, hopefully when the team is half decent again.
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Post by gadi on Apr 11, 2018 19:42:41 GMT
They also have the better coach in this series by far. I'm not sold on any of the "favourites" in the East at all. I predict/(hope??) LAK destroys VGK as well. That's a situation that is long overdue to crash down to earth. You have Vegas? What's wrong with you? Do you also hate puppies & unicorns?
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