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Post by soccer24 on Nov 17, 2017 17:42:40 GMT
"It's not 100% accurate therefore why even bother?"
I don't know what you want me to say to that.
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Post by khawk20 on Nov 17, 2017 17:44:10 GMT
Ah any predictive system is, really. Some make more sense than others but as long as intangibles exist in sports the house will always have the odds in their favour.
I see some value in this sort of thing although its' not the sort of predictor I personally would look at first when trying to forecast how a team will do or how a game will go.
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Post by khawk20 on Nov 17, 2017 17:48:25 GMT
I am more inclined to look at things like "Hawks record playing in Philly" as a predictor that would resonate (especially that one, but just an example).
Individual player-wise, home and road splits is something that I look at. If Duncan Keith has 10 points so far and 2 have come on the road and 8 have come at home, I am less inclined to use him on the road in a fantasy hockey setting, for example.
Doesn't mean he won't or can't have a four point night or anything, just the base numbers I am looking at say it is far less likely.
The deeper analytics go the less I tend to use them because frankly I don't have the focus to dive that deep into them anymore.
(for the record I am enjoying reading what soccer is putting in this thread, and will follow the numbers he updates as the season progresses)
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Post by jimc on Nov 17, 2017 17:50:03 GMT
It is marginally predictive and relies on far too many 'what if' variables to be a useful tool for explaining current events.
If a bunch if unrelated events all happen, then SJ will actually deserve their top ranking.
Hey...blind luck...or do we call that PDO now
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 17, 2017 18:08:54 GMT
So somethings to remember:
- This is about taking regular season statistics and trying to make predictions on the playoffs. - Using the formula I've put together, it accounts for about 65% of the playoff series. - This is better than any one singular stat I've seen. Keep in mind the better team in the standings only advances 55%. So 10 points lower.
Using these numbers to try and predict regular season results probably shouldn't be looked at. The idea is taking a total of 82 games and trying to make a call on a 7 game series. Any one singular game really could go either way.
And of course you're never going to get anything near 100%. I almost feel like 66% might be the natural limit on anything like this. There's no way to account for one Arizona is going to randomly win their first regular season game. Shit happens, and hockey probably has the greatest amount of parity.
I think some hockey fans might have trouble admitting it, but that large amount of parity comes at a cost. It means that luck will just end up playing an even larger factor in the final result. I personally think the NHL has too much parity. Not that I want things to be as imbalanced as the NBA, but at least there having a higher skilled team actually means something. How the fuck are the Knights, a team of leftover and hand-me-downs, second in their division? How in the world did the Senators ever make it to the Conference Final last year? These underdog tales happen way too often to where when it comes down to it, it's hard to tell if we're watching a game based on talent, or if we're just flipping coins every night.
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Post by jimc on Nov 17, 2017 18:33:33 GMT
ya...totally agree...the 3 point game gave the league exactly what it wants...parity and a lot of mediocre teams...but they can sell hopium to almost every franchise now.
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Post by khawk20 on Nov 17, 2017 18:47:07 GMT
I do miss the days of "upsets" being "upsets"...But I wouldn't want to go down the NBA's road either, where only two or three teams have an honest shot to win it all every year, and everyone else is legit happy if they win a playoff round.
Some sort of happy medium would be preferable. but as noted, "hopium" is a powerful drug to the sports fan...
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Post by lari on Nov 17, 2017 18:56:27 GMT
This coin-toss era makes those Hawks' and Penguins' three post-cap Cup wins even more impressive.
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Post by jimc on Nov 17, 2017 21:41:32 GMT
Or it meams they got lucky at the right time?
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Post by lari on Nov 17, 2017 23:37:23 GMT
Either way, it means neither team should have been doing what they were doing. Based on advanced stats, what they did was almost impossible.
You should add the Kings to the list. They basically said fuck you to all stats and predictions and won twice, once being the 8th seed. Looking mighty impressive both times. The 2012 run there was no-one near their level when they really put the pedal to the metal.
But then two incredible conference finals meetings between two giants in 2013 and 2014.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 18, 2017 7:10:42 GMT
The Hawks and Kings in particular are teams that have maintained solid Corsi numbers during their peak areas. They're the teams the advanced stats folks point at as perfect models to it all. (And as the Hawks have become worse since 2015, so has their Corsi.)
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Post by jimc on Nov 18, 2017 16:28:25 GMT
Last years Pens were certainly anti-Corsi
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Post by Pez68 on Nov 18, 2017 16:36:43 GMT
The 2013 and 2014 series against LA was some of the most entertaining hockey I've ever watched. It really was awesome. Luck plays a part in any Stanley Cup run, but you don't do what the Hawks, Pens, and Kings did based on luck alone. Those teams really were fucking great, and playing great hockey.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 18, 2017 17:08:07 GMT
Last years Pens were certainly anti-Corsi This isn't entirely true. Last year's Pens were middle of the road with corsi. It was the 2009 Pens that were the worst corsi team to win the last 10 years (19th in the league.) The year they lost they were 29th, so there was notable improvement from one year to the next. And the Predators certainly did outshoot the Pens in that final series. And the first couple of games it was noted that the Predators seemed to have the better pace of play. Just never put anything in. It happens. So yes, you can always find exceptions. I'm saying this model has accounted for 65% of past playoff series. Which means that you have a 35% slice to point at that went the other way. (Last year, my model had Penguins (#4) over the Predators (#9) anyway.)
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Post by lari on Nov 18, 2017 17:12:58 GMT
Rinne also sucked, but Corsi doesn't put any value to goaltending. Just so happens in real life it's the most important position.
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