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Post by jimc on Nov 10, 2017 22:37:07 GMT
On goal?
Now thats funny
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Post by garyu on Nov 11, 2017 0:34:54 GMT
Still counts if it ticks someone's shin pad...
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Post by Pez68 on Nov 11, 2017 2:50:09 GMT
The Hawks are just far too easy to defend. We've all seen it. Aside from Kane's brilliance with beating Dmen 1-on-1, you almost know FOR SURE what any other player will do with the puck. And the PP? Please. "Down low play, cross-crease" or "DK puts floats pillow on goal" That's exactly it. It's almost like the coaching staff frowns upon creativity or taking chances with the puck. It's nothing but the safe play, and looking for the perfect pass... Nobody on this team is willing to bring the puck up the middle of the ice. Take it wide and chip it deep is pretty much their only play. It's fucking depressing to see talented players dumb down their game like the Hawks do.
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Post by jimc on Nov 11, 2017 5:02:00 GMT
Said talented players are also firmly on the downsides of their careers...watcha see is watcha get.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 13, 2017 17:02:24 GMT
Hawks fall from 13th to 15th.
SJ remains #1. They got crushed by Tampa Bay (who continues to rise), but took down LA last night.
Vancouver had an exceptionally brutal week. Dropping from 5th to 22nd in just a single week. I would have expected we were late enough in the season to where seeing a fall/rise that large wouldn't be quite as possible anymore.
Upcoming Hawks opponents this week: NYR & PIT - Neither team is really all that special this year. I got them at 24th and 18th. Actual standings has them at 16th and 17th. But Chicago isn't really anything special either. Last week, any attempt I made at predictions went terribly. I guess I expect a split this week? I don't know. Both games seem like coin flips.
Rank Team 1 San Jose 2 St. Louis 3 Los Angeles 4 Columbus 5 Tampa Bay 6 Carolina 7 Dallas 8 Nashville 9 NY Islanders 10 Boston 11 Calgary 12 Ottawa 13 Edmonton 14 Detroit 15 Chicago 16 Anaheim 17 Toronto 18 Pittsburgh 19 Vegas 20 Philadelphia 21 Montreal 22 Vancouver 23 Minnesota 24 NY Rangers 25 New Jersey 26 Winnipeg 27 Washington 28 Florida 29 Buffalo 30 Colorado 31 Arizona
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Post by lari on Nov 13, 2017 17:09:07 GMT
PHI - Should be a win. This seems to be a team that's an easy match-up for the Hawks. Philly's terrible PK should allow the Chicago PP to score another goal or two, making everyone believe the PP is actually improved.
CAR - Carolina is weird. They won't be an easy game. And I think Q will probably play the back-up goalie here thinking NJ is the tougher matchup. But Carolina does the right things, they just can't shoot for shit. If Hawks play Forsberg, I suspect Darling gets a win. Otherwise, Chicago.
NJD - And NJ is like the opposite of Carolina. Not generating much offensively, but they are managing to get all the right bounces. This is the one I feel the Hawks end up dropping. They'll probably look like the superior team, and have an interesting third period, but Hawks lose here. 0 for 1 1 for 3 Just edged out by the coin flip method (1.5 out of 3)
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Post by lari on Nov 13, 2017 17:11:07 GMT
We should do a test run of, say, 20 games. Where method A is soccer's advanced stats (higher ranked team wins), method B is 'the eye test' (ie. I pick who I think wins) and method C is someone literally flipping a coin prior to each game.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 13, 2017 17:38:37 GMT
Haha, would be interesting.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 13, 2017 18:04:21 GMT
Although, important to stress: I designed this with the intention of using an 82 game regular season to predict playoff success. I have no idea how accurate this might be in predicting regular season results.
Come playoff time, I say we set this up round-by-round.
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Post by jimc on Nov 13, 2017 18:29:57 GMT
How is tampa not the top team?
Lol
They are the class of the league right now.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 13, 2017 18:53:33 GMT
Tampa is a lot of fun. I hope Kucherov can score 80 goals this season.
He's probably not going to though. Their shooting percent is abnormally high. And there could be concerns that they are looking like a one-line team. What happens in the playoffs when you throw your best D-pair at Stamkos and Kucherov?
But I think they've also been overcoming some rocky possession numbers early on. If you look at the right chart that I attached, you'll see they've only been improving as the season moves on.
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Post by jimc on Nov 17, 2017 14:56:06 GMT
Ok...sharks are 3rd in their division and 6th in the conference
Bolts are lapping the field
Sharks are +6 goal differential
Bolts are already +30
So, um....
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 17, 2017 17:30:03 GMT
Tampa's got mediocre possession numbers and is riding on an insane shot percentage (12.4%). But yes, they have a lot of other things going well for them. This formula has them at 5th. Not like that's a bad ranking. It's pretty good, actually.
San Jose is more regularly outshooting opponents, has a solid penalty kill, and is getting goaltending equivalent to Tampa's. One thing hindering San Jose in the standings is they have the third worst shot % in the league. When some of those pucks start actually finding the back of the net, they'll certainly rise up the standings if they continue to play this way. (Waiting on Carolina & Edmonton to demonstrate the same thing but damn... Seems like that's not happening any time soon.)
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Post by khawk20 on Nov 17, 2017 17:33:18 GMT
To the SJ point, Brent Burns has taken the most shots in the league and has not scored a goal yet (according to their broadcast last game). That's a huge aberration right there. Pavelski isn't scoring either.
When those numbers correct themselves (at least in Burns case, no way is him at zero goals anything but an aberration), then yes, their fortunes as a team will improve.
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Post by jimc on Nov 17, 2017 17:34:49 GMT
So advanced stats are still darts on a board
Youre welcome
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