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Post by khawk20 on Nov 8, 2017 15:10:01 GMT
How do Too Many Men -penalties correlate with winning? Hawks don't have any this season, but were plagued by them during all those years of success. The better versions of this team in years past were engaged because they were winning. More engaged players meant jumping the gun to get out on the ice. Therefore, more Too Many Men Penalties. This team knows right now it's wheels are spinning and their control of the offensive play is less, so the enthusiasm to jump the gun on a line change isn't the same. Either that or it was always Kitchen's fault.
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Post by jimc on Nov 8, 2017 15:25:28 GMT
Because when it came to looking at 150 different playoff series, the team with the better PP or the better SH% won less than half of them. How many less than half? And the Pens winning last year, while being badly outshot in each series, ptetty much disproves CORSI.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 8, 2017 15:46:18 GMT
I know you guys are being smart asses here, but I went ahead and did the best I could. I couldn't isolate Too Many Men exclusively, but nhl.com separated out "bench minors." Attached are two different graphs. The first shows correlation of Bench Penalties vs Points, the second shows Corsi vs Points.
As for Jim C claiming one singular team disproves a stat that never claimed to be the only stat that ever mattered is.....well, that's quite special on his part. Yes. There will always be exceptions. No statistical model is ever going to claim perfection. We might as well be arguing that goal differential doesn't matter because teams can still win more games than not despite having a negative differential.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 8, 2017 15:52:20 GMT
Follow-up, on the topic of focusing only on those who win Championships. Here are the average league rankings of the past 10 Stanley Cup Champions by various category:
CF% (5v5) - 6 FF% (5v5) - 6 Points - 6 PP% - 16 PK% - 9 GoalDiff - 4 SH% - 16 SV% - 7
Two of those stats are not like the others....
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Post by jimc on Nov 8, 2017 16:01:25 GMT
I like what you are trying to accomplish...just sticking a pin in the CORSI balloon...it is pretty meaningless.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 8, 2017 16:12:30 GMT
Now, I have been trying to wrap my head around the PP% conundrum as well. For whatever reason, having a good one in the regular season, doesn't often seem to matter come playoff time. And here's a claim I can't really back-up, but it seems that when you have match-ups featuring a really strong PK vs a really strong PP, it's the PK that will prevail. I think that notion speaks to the "defense wins championships" cliche. Hockey is such a defense-first sport, to where it's much easier to control how often goals are scored against you versus trying to score goals on the other team. I think that all kind of makes sense. And honestly, it's not often the team that is all offense, no defense gets very far. And the PK & PP are awfully symbolic of the defense vs offense dynamic.
I think maybe similar statements can be made in the SV% vs SH% debacle too.
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Post by jimc on Nov 8, 2017 17:55:01 GMT
good pitching beats good hitting?
maybe....
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 10, 2017 6:56:36 GMT
PHI - Should be a win. This seems to be a team that's an easy match-up for the Hawks. Philly's terrible PK should allow the Chicago PP to score another goal or two, making everyone believe the PP is actually improved.
CAR - Carolina is weird. They won't be an easy game. And I think Q will probably play the back-up goalie here thinking NJ is the tougher matchup. But Carolina does the right things, they just can't shoot for shit. If Hawks play Forsberg, I suspect Darling gets a win. Otherwise, Chicago.
NJD - And NJ is like the opposite of Carolina. Not generating much offensively, but they are managing to get all the right bounces. This is the one I feel the Hawks end up dropping. They'll probably look like the superior team, and have an interesting third period, but Hawks lose here. 0 for 1
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Post by khawk20 on Nov 10, 2017 13:28:29 GMT
Your stats didn't factor in the intangible of the Hawks not winning a regular season game in Philly since 1996, which is ridiculous but certainly was in everyone on that benches head.
Carolina games in Carolina are hit and miss. I seem to think they have lost more than they have won there in recent years. Just going from memory though.
New Jersey, Hawks are much better at home than on the road against them. Again going from memory.
If they go 0-3 on this stretch, Stunley needs to start sending his scouts to junior/USHL/KHL teams with players that should be wanted by draft lottery participants. You can't go 0-fer against this bunch of teams and expect to be a playoff team, IMO.
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 10, 2017 14:37:04 GMT
As far as expecting to be a playoff team, I read this from Dave Lozo yesterday in an article about the biggest frauds in the league right now:
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Post by khawk20 on Nov 10, 2017 14:49:02 GMT
The bolded statement is sobering. and True.
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Post by lari on Nov 10, 2017 15:26:09 GMT
Yeah, what happens when Crawford comes back to Earth?
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Post by khawk20 on Nov 10, 2017 15:48:24 GMT
Yeah, what happens when Crawford comes back to Earth? More Losses. LOTS more losses. With Ugly Scores attached to them. I almost with the Pitts and Columbus games hadn't happened as they did now. Not only did they give me a false sense of " This isn't going to be as bad as I thought, maybe even pretty good", I'd hate it if those were the two high points of the year for this team. But who knows? Maybe they rip off another magical ten game win streak in the middle of the year. (Probably not)
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Post by soccer24 on Nov 10, 2017 19:09:21 GMT
Crawford will have to come down eventually, yes. If you want optimism: the Hawks have to eventually start scoring 5v5 again.
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Post by Hawksfan10 on Nov 10, 2017 20:48:24 GMT
The Hawks are just far too easy to defend. We've all seen it. Aside from Kane's brilliance with beating Dmen 1-on-1, you almost know FOR SURE what any other player will do with the puck.
And the PP? Please. "Down low play, cross-crease" or "DK puts floats pillow on goal"
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